Paper portfolio
Trading desk
Simulated Polymarket copy book. Orders, win rate, niche P&L, and exposure — marked to public bid depth. Paper-only: no keys, no live orders.
$530.15 equity on $500.00 bankroll
37 closed · 25W / 36L
24 open · 37 closed
44.0% of bankroll deployed
share of open marks currently green
worst −$20.20 · avg win $8.19
Capital stack
Realized $33.60 · Unrealized −$3.45
Book quality
Live marks refresh every ~10 minutes. Executable = ask-entry / bid-mark. Research = older midpoint entries, kept separate from edge claims.
Equity
$530.15
bankroll $500.00
Realized
$33.60
closed P&L
Unrealized
−$3.45
open mark-to-market
Signal funnel
61
5494 watch · 6834 skip
Equity curve
Portfolio P&L over time · full paper book
Hit rate
Winners vs losers across open + closed marks
Niche P&L
Where the book is making or losing money
Open exposure by niche
$220.00 deployed · 44.0% of bankroll
Executable open 13 · Research open 11
Exposure over time
Open notional path
Niche breakdown
Orders, hit rate, stance, exposure, and P&L by market niche
| Niche | Stance | Orders | Open | Win rate | Exposure | Realized | Unrealized | Total P&L | Mix |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| tennis | hold | 5 | 0 | 40.0% | $0.00 | $28.09 | $0.00 | $28.09 | |
| other | hold | 11 | 4 | 36.4% | $40.00 | $10.78 | −$2.52 | $8.26 | |
| sports | insufficient | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | $0.00 | −$5.05 | $0.00 | −$5.05 | |
| mlb | test | 3 | 1 | 66.7% | $5.00 | $4.48 | −$0.10 | $4.38 | |
| esports | hold | 23 | 3 | 39.1% | $35.00 | −$2.16 | −$2.07 | −$4.23 | |
| geopolitics | test | 3 | 3 | 66.7% | $25.00 | $0.00 | $4.12 | $4.12 | |
| macro | insufficient | 2 | 0 | 50.0% | $0.00 | −$2.54 | $0.00 | −$2.54 | |
| politics | test | 3 | 3 | 66.7% | $30.00 | $0.00 | −$1.37 | −$1.37 | |
| bitcoin | test | 1 | 1 | 0.0% | $10.00 | $0.00 | −$0.77 | −$0.77 | |
| us elections | test | 5 | 5 | 20.0% | $40.00 | $0.00 | −$0.53 | −$0.53 | |
| soccer | test | 1 | 1 | 0.0% | $10.00 | $0.00 | −$0.31 | −$0.31 | |
| weather | test | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | $10.00 | $0.00 | $0.12 | $0.12 | |
| finance | test | 2 | 2 | 50.0% | $15.00 | $0.00 | −$0.02 | −$0.02 |
Open book
24 live positions · sorted by mark P&L
| Market | Niche | Side | Size | Entry | Mark | P&L | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26? Yes · Jul 24, 05:27 AM | geopolitics | BUY | $10.00 | 68.0¢ | 96.1¢ | $3.89 | executable |
Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No · Jul 23, 08:39 PM | politics | BUY | $10.00 | 82.8¢ | 88.0¢ | $0.63 | research |
Israel military action against Yemen by July 31? No · Jul 24, 06:03 AM | geopolitics | BUY | $5.00 | 84.0¢ | 93.0¢ | $0.43 | executable |
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? No · Jul 23, 08:39 PM | us elections | BUY | $10.00 | 24.0¢ | 24.8¢ | $0.35 | research |
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026? Yes · Jul 24, 05:17 PM | other | BUY | $10.00 | 91.0¢ | 95.2¢ | $0.26 | executable |
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No · Jul 23, 08:39 PM | politics | BUY | $10.00 | 90.5¢ | 92.4¢ | $0.20 | research |
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $0.70T and $0.80T on July 31? No · Jul 23, 08:39 PM | finance | BUY | $5.00 | 56.1¢ | 57.8¢ | $0.15 | research |
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? Yes · Jul 23, 08:39 PM | weather | BUY | $10.00 | 40.5¢ | 41.0¢ | $0.12 | research |
Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? No · Jul 23, 08:39 PM | us elections | BUY | $10.00 | 79.5¢ | 79.0¢ | −$0.06 | research |
Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox · Jul 24, 05:17 AM | mlb | BUY | $5.00 | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ | −$0.10 | executable |
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $0.90T and $1.00T on July 31? No · Jul 23, 08:39 PM | finance | BUY | $10.00 | 97.3¢ | 95.6¢ | −$0.17 | research |
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election? No · Jul 23, 08:39 PM | us elections | BUY | $10.00 | 25.5¢ | 25.0¢ | −$0.20 | research |
Top winners
Best mark / closed prints
Hamburg European Open: Tamara Korpatsch vs Anhelina Kalinina
tennis · $10.00 · closed
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner
esports · $10.00 · closed
Valorant: QT DIG∞ vs Fennel (BO3) - VCL Japan Season Finals Playoffs
esports · $20.00 · closed
Will Cuiabá EC win on 2026-07-23?
other · $20.00 · resolved
Livesport Prague Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova
tennis · $10.00 · closed
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5)
esports · $10.00 · closed
Top losers
Largest drawdowns on the book
Counter-Strike: magic vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries European Qualifier Play-In
esports · $20.00 · closed
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Regular Season
esports · $20.00 · closed
Game Handicap: AL (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5)
esports · $10.00 · resolved
Bloomfield Hills: Michael Zheng vs Adam Walton
other · $10.00 · closed
Estoril Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Alexander Blockx
tennis · $10.00 · closed
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Vitality (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier
esports · $10.00 · closed
Research readiness
Passing this evidence gate does not enable live trading. Real execution would require a separate security and risk project.
30 reported paper-trading days
3/30
positive cumulative paper PnL
$17.79
100 paper trades
34/100
filtered strategy beats blind copy
$23.55 vs $23.55
no operator failures in 30 days
76 failures
maximum drawdown at or below 20%
2.0%
Desk status
Ops pulse
Daily report
Saved · Jul 24, 11:57 PM
Leaderboard
500 wallets · Jul 25, 12:05 AM
Last rule change
Exit-policy relearn (early_hurts): Disable exitOnSourceWalletFlip: source_wallet_flip early $-8.98 vs hold $-0.67 (Δ $-8.31) on n=2; holdBetter 1 > earlyBetter 0. · Jul 25, 07:30 PM
Source wallets
Coverage-complete profiles only
| Wallet | Rank | ROI 30d | Score | Niche | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x2cE8505aA641791EB8460f6ac6bf5C0511E34527-17467354815130x2ce85…34527 | #176 | 79.3% | 98.6 | other | watch |
| THEdirkdiggler0x1e779…68c33 | #328 | 84.2% | 98.3 | other | watch |
| beet4200xd81e5…9e3d0 | #282 | 71.9% | 98.2 | other | watch |
| cnyek0x65018…61220 | #20 | 58.0% | 98.1 | other | watch |
| JAMJAMJAM40xe8c4d…d395d | #312 | 45.7% | 97.4 | sports | watch |
| TAIWANNUMBERONE0xe015b…06ffd | #123 | 64.6% | 96.8 | other | watch |
| SineNooneEI0x38337…633d1 | #158 | 83.9% | 96.4 | esports | watch |
| HongYunX0xc72d7…efc21 | #188 | 49.3% | 96.2 | other | watch |