Daily desk reports

HERMES PAPER REPORT — 2026-07-25
Validated PnL today: $1.20 | Total: $33.10
Active policy v6: $1.62 across 1 positions
Prior validated policy cohorts: $31.48 across 47 positions — excluded from active-policy claims
Legacy midpoint cohort: $13.12 across 14 positions — excluded from edge claims
Validated win rate: 47.2% | Open positions: 12
Signal flow: 5318 observed / 5318 decided / 0 pending
Decisions: 9 copied / 3724 watched / 1585 skipped · 4652 evidence-complete
Filtered vs blind today: $-40.40 vs $-40.40 on 4 resolved decisions
Early-exit test: 29/32 matched · early $13.15 vs hold $24.20 (Δ $-11.05) · verdict early_hurts
Best paper trade: $31.11 (Tamara Korpatsch)
Worst paper trade: $-20.20 (Gentle Mates)
Best validated wallet: JAMJAMJAM4 ($22.53) | Worst: f3arless ($-24.96)
Official niche evidence: 319 complete wallets / 21 niches · 11 sample-ready · 8 positive candidates
Qualified current niche hypothesis: soccer: 69.0% pooled ROI, 64.3–68.2% win-rate interval, 187 wallets
Trader book stances: push[none] probe[none] cut[none] test[mlb,geopolitics,politics,bitcoin,soccer,us_elections,weather,finance]
Postmortems new today: 0 · views 13
  · TEST mlb: 2 open / 2 validated closes — finish the experiment.
  · TEST geopolitics: 2 open / 1 validated closes — finish the experiment.
  · TEST politics: 3 open / 0 validated closes — finish the experiment.
  · TEST bitcoin: 1 open / 0 validated closes — finish the experiment.
Rule changes: 1
Lesson: Exit-policy relearn (early_hurts): Disable exitOnSourceWalletFlip: source_wallet_flip early $-8.98 vs hold $-0.67 (Δ $-8.31) on n=2; holdBetter 1 > earlyBetter 0.
Latest chronological learning window: none — insufficient fully-lined resolved evidence
Tomorrow: act on trader stances (push/probe/cut/test); do not infer global edge before holdout evidence.
PAPER ONLY — no real trades or financial advice.

HERMES PAPER REPORT — 2026-07-24
Validated PnL today: $27.23 | Total: $23.85
Active policy v5: $-24.03 across 11 positions
Prior validated policy cohorts: $47.88 across 28 positions — excluded from active-policy claims
Legacy midpoint cohort: $13.89 across 14 positions — excluded from edge claims
Validated win rate: 37.5% | Open positions: 15
Signal flow: 6257 observed / 6257 decided / 0 pending
Decisions: 39 copied / 1447 watched / 4771 skipped · 3486 evidence-complete
Filtered vs blind today: $43.89 vs $43.89 on 21 resolved decisions
Early-exit test: 17/20 matched · early $37.10 vs hold $46.92 (Δ $-9.82) · verdict insufficient_data
Best paper trade: $31.11 (Tamara Korpatsch)
Worst paper trade: $-10.10 (LGD Gaming)
Best validated wallet: TAIWANNUMBERONE ($45.74) | Worst: f3arless ($-24.96)
Official niche evidence: 300 complete wallets / 21 niches · 11 sample-ready · 9 positive candidates
Qualified current niche hypothesis: soccer: 73.2% pooled ROI, 65.9–69.9% win-rate interval, 173 wallets
Rule changes: 4
Lesson: Contract upgrade: stale signals remain research evidence but cannot open paper positions after 15 minutes.
Latest chronological learning window: none — insufficient fully-lined resolved evidence
Tomorrow: monitor high-scoring wallets; do not infer an edge before enough markets resolve.
PAPER ONLY — no real trades or financial advice.

HERMES PAPER REPORT — 2026-07-23
Validated PnL today: $0.00 | Total: $0.00
Legacy midpoint cohort: $-2.68 across 14 positions — excluded from edge claims
Validated win rate: 0.0% | Open positions: 0
Signals: 1595 new / 0 copied / 27 watched / 8 skipped
Best paper trade: none
Worst paper trade: none
Best wallet: kunkun168 | Worst wallet: thesingularityisnear
Rule changes: 0
Lesson: Keep collecting resolved outcomes before changing rules.
Latest chronological learning window: none — insufficient fully-lined resolved evidence
Tomorrow: monitor high-scoring wallets; do not infer an edge before enough markets resolve.
PAPER ONLY — no real trades or financial advice.