Paper trading desk

Rules

Risk & scoring policy

Versioned paper thresholds only. Each version keeps a plain-language note of what behavior changed. Nothing here can authorize live trading.

v6 live

Active thresholds

Updated Jul 25, 07:30 PM

Min wallet quality to copy

minimumWalletScore

Score needed to open a paper trade

paperCopyThreshold

Score needed to watch (not trade)

watchlistThreshold

Max bid/ask spread allowed

8¢

maximumSpread

Min market liquidity ($)

$5,000

minimumLiquidity

Max price move after the wallet filled

12¢

maximumPriceMovement

Max signal age before we refuse to copy

15 min

maximumSignalAgeSeconds

Min resolved history on the source wallet

minimumResolvedTrades

Simulated bankroll ($)

$500

paperBankroll

Max % of bankroll in open risk

25%

maxOpenExposurePct

Max open positions

maxOpenPositions

Max % of bankroll from one source wallet

maxSourceWalletExposurePct

Max open positions from one source wallet

maxSourceWalletOpenPositions

Max open positions in one event family

maxEventFamilyOpenPositions

Max % of bankroll in one event family

maxEventFamilyExposurePct

Niche discovery: min wallets in niche

minimumDiscoveryNicheWallets

Niche discovery: min profitable wallets

minimumDiscoveryNicheProfitableWallets

Niche discovery: min resolved sample

minimumDiscoveryNicheResolvedPositions

Niche discovery: max profit from one wallet

50%

maximumDiscoveryNicheProfitConcentration

Min hold before discretionary early exit

minHoldMinutes

Exit if bid falls to this (near-zero loss)

3¢

terminalLossBid

Bank winner if bid reaches this

97¢

takeProfitBid

Note adverse move this large (does not exit alone)

20¢

adverseMoveWatch

Exit if source wallet sells/flips the same side

off

exitOnSourceWalletFlip

Exit on official thesis invalidation

exitOnOfficialInvalidation

Min source score that still supports holding

trustSourceWalletScoreMin

Peer wallets on same side that reinforce hold

peerHoldReinforceCount

Version history

6 immutable versions · newest first

v6activeJul 25, 07:30 PM

Exit-policy relearn (early_hurts): Disable exitOnSourceWalletFlip: source_wallet_flip early $-8.98 vs hold $-0.67 (Δ $-8.31) on n=2; holdBetter 1 > earlyBetter 0.

Do not auto-exit on source-wallet flip — treat flips as journal risk; hold unless terminal/official invalidation.

Field deltas (1)

Field	Before	After
Exit if source wallet sells/flips the same side	on	off

v5supersededJul 24, 04:33 PM

Contract upgrade: add missing paper-rule fields (maxEventFamilyOpenPositions, maxEventFamilyExposurePct) without loosening entry gates.

Cap open risk inside one event family at 4% of bankroll.
At most 2 open paper positions that share the same event family (e.g. moneyline + spreads).

Field deltas (2)

Field	Before	After
Max % of bankroll in one event family	—	4%
Max open positions in one event family	—	2

v4supersededJul 24, 11:52 AM

Open-position management: hold by default; early take-profit / terminal-loss / source-flip exits

Journal adverse moves of 20¢+, but drawdown alone never forces an exit.
Hard exit when official research marks the thesis invalidated.
Hard exit if the source wallet flips/sells the same market outcome after we copied them.
No discretionary early exit in the first 20 minutes after open.
If 2+ other tracked wallets are still long the same side, that reinforces HOLD.
Early take-profit: may close winners when the live bid is at/above 97¢ to free capital.
Terminal-loss exit: may liquidate when the live bid is at/below 3¢ (market effectively dead against us).
Source-wallet track record only helps justify holding when their score stays ≥ 58.

Field deltas (8)

Field	Before	After
Note adverse move this large (does not exit alone)	—	20¢
Exit on official thesis invalidation	—	on
Exit if source wallet sells/flips the same side	—	on
Min hold before discretionary early exit	—	20
Peer wallets on same side that reinforce hold	—	2
Bank winner if bid reaches this	—	97¢
Exit if bid falls to this (near-zero loss)	—	3¢
Min source score that still supports holding	—	58

v3supersededJul 24, 09:28 AM

Niche-discovery lane ($5) + per-source-wallet concentration caps

Cap open risk from any single copied wallet at 5% of bankroll.
At most 5 open paper positions from the same source wallet.
Added Niche discovery: max profit from one wallet: 50%.
Added Niche discovery: min profitable wallets: 7.
Added Niche discovery: min resolved sample: 35.
Allow a small $5 niche-discovery lane when several independent wallets show edge in the same niche.

Field deltas (6)

Field	Before	After
Max % of bankroll from one source wallet	—	5%
Max open positions from one source wallet	—	5
Niche discovery: max profit from one wallet	—	50%
Niche discovery: min profitable wallets	—	7
Niche discovery: min resolved sample	—	35
Niche discovery: min wallets in niche	—	7

v2supersededJul 24, 06:21 AM

Freshness gate: no paper entry after the signal is too old

Refuse new paper entries once a signal is older than 15 minutes (stale fills stay in the research journal only).

Field deltas (1)

Field	Before	After
Max signal age before we refuse to copy	—	15 min (900s)

v1supersededJul 23, 08:37 PM

Initial paper rulebook

Starting copy desk: score gates, spread/liquidity hard stops, $500 bankroll, 25% open-risk cap.
Only opens simulated BUY copies when the source wallet and market clear every hard gate.

Policy change log

Why each promotion happened, with evidence

Jul 25, 07:30 PMhermes

Exit-policy relearn (early_hurts): Disable exitOnSourceWalletFlip: source_wallet_flip early $-8.98 vs hold $-0.67 (Δ $-8.31) on n=2; holdBetter 1 > earlyBetter 0.

Do not auto-exit on source-wallet flip — treat flips as journal risk; hold unless terminal/official invalidation.

Evidence: early exit counterfactual relearn

Jul 24, 04:33 PMhermes

Contract upgrade: add missing paper-rule fields (maxEventFamilyOpenPositions, maxEventFamilyExposurePct) without loosening entry gates.

Cap open risk inside one event family at 4% of bankroll.
At most 2 open paper positions that share the same event family (e.g. moneyline + spreads).

Evidence: active PaperRules contract parity · keep live policy aligned with code defaults for concentration, discovery, and exit contracts · new fields: maxEventFamilyOpenPositions, maxEventFamilyExposurePct

Jul 24, 11:52 AMhermes

Open-position management: hold by default; early take-profit / terminal-loss / source-flip exits

Contract upgrade: add hold-default open-position conviction/exit fields without loosening entry gates.

Journal adverse moves of 20¢+, but drawdown alone never forces an exit.
Hard exit when official research marks the thesis invalidated.
Hard exit if the source wallet flips/sells the same market outcome after we copied them.
No discretionary early exit in the first 20 minutes after open.
If 2+ other tracked wallets are still long the same side, that reinforces HOLD.
Early take-profit: may close winners when the live bid is at/above 97¢ to free capital.
Terminal-loss exit: may liquidate when the live bid is at/below 3¢ (market effectively dead against us).
Source-wallet track record only helps justify holding when their score stays ≥ 58.

Evidence: governing brief early-exit + continuous conviction re-analysis · cut only when thesis is hard-broken or near-certain; measure early-exit vs hold-to-resolution counterfactuals · new fields: minHoldMinutes, terminalLossBid, takeProfitBid, adverseMoveWatch, exitOnSourceWalletFlip, exitOnOfficialInvalidation… · stance: hold default hard invalidation only

Jul 24, 09:28 AMhermes

Niche-discovery lane ($5) + per-source-wallet concentration caps

Contract upgrade: add an auditable $5 cross-wallet niche-discovery lane and source-wallet concentration limits without loosening execution hard gates.

Cap open risk from any single copied wallet at 5% of bankroll.
At most 5 open paper positions from the same source wallet.
Added Niche discovery: max profit from one wallet: 50%.
Added Niche discovery: min profitable wallets: 7.
Added Niche discovery: min resolved sample: 35.
Allow a small $5 niche-discovery lane when several independent wallets show edge in the same niche.

Evidence: official complete 30-day wallet and niche snapshots · collect prospective evidence from broad but immature niche agreement without allowing one wallet to become the portfolio thesis · new fields: maxSourceWalletExposurePct, maxSourceWalletOpenPositions, minimumDiscoveryNicheWallets, minimumDiscoveryNicheProfitableWallets, minimumDiscoveryNicheResolvedPositions, maximumDiscoveryNicheProfitConcentration

Jul 24, 06:21 AMhermes

Freshness gate: no paper entry after the signal is too old

Contract upgrade: stale signals remain research evidence but cannot open paper positions after 15 minutes.

Refuse new paper entries once a signal is older than 15 minutes (stale fills stay in the research journal only).

Evidence: live timing audit · avoid delayed entries that no longer represent reproducible copy opportunities